Cabo Ligado Weekly: 6-12 February 2023

Feb 14

By the Numbers: Cabo Delgado, October 2017-February 2023 ¹

Figures updated as of 10 February 2023. Political violence includes Battles, Explosions/Remote violence, and Violence against civilians event types. Violence targeting civilians includes Explosions/Remote violence and Violence against civilians event types where civilians are targeted. Fatalities for the two categories thus overlap for certain events.

Total number of political violence events: 1,613
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence: 4,662
Total number of reported fatalities from political violence targeting civilians: 2,017

All ACLED data are available for download via the data export tool and curated data files.

Situation Summary

Following a few days of hectic insurgent activity that coincided with TotalEnergies’ CEO Patrick Pouyanné’s visit to Cabo Delgado, the rate of incidents returned to a more moderate pace last week. The most significant event was reported this week in Nairoto, Montepuez district, where a large group of at least 30 fighters, possibly more, attacked at around midnight between 12 and 13 February, killing five members of the security forces. District Administrator Isaura Maquina confirmed that no civilian infrastructure was targeted in the attack. The Gemfields-owned Nairoto Resources Limitada exploration camp, 15 km northeast of Nairoto, was evacuated the next day.

The group was armed with rocket-propelled grenades (RPG-7s) and light machine guns (PKMs). A local source said that two cells of insurgents had been observed operating in the area and that both had come from bases around the Messalo river near Muidumbe. These insurgents have likely been in the area since the attack on Namoro, near Nairoto, on 4 February. An official document from the Montepuez administration records half the population of Namoro, Nairoto, and Nanhupo having fled the area. The village of Mwiriti, 50 km north of Nairoto, was also attacked on 6 February but no casualties have been reported so far. The International Organization for Migration recorded 3,337 people arriving at a camp for displaced people outside Montepuez town between 1 and 7 February. Movement along the R698 between Montepuez and Mueda is still being affected by these attacks, with vehicles requiring armed escorts from security forces.

Islamic State (IS) has claimed responsibility for attacks in Mueda and Muidumbe districts, though they have not yet been independently confirmed. The first attack allegedly took place on 4 February in Muilo, approximately 40 km west of Mueda town, where IS said it burned about 20 homes. Two days later, fighters clashed with Local Forces near Namacule in Muidumbe but IS did not claim to have inflicted any casualties.

Bands of IS fighters are continuing to try to build positive relations with villages in Mocímboa da Praia. On 3 February, insurgents appeared in Maculo and called a meeting with residents where they said the villagers would be allowed to live peacefully as long as they did not collaborate with security forces (see below). Afterwards they bought some dried fish from the village, according to a local source. The insurgents returned to Maculo several days later reportedly, and damaged some property, prompting villagers to leave by boat for Mocímboa da Praia.

However, insurgents in the area have also continued to carry out acts of violence against civilians. On 2 February, up to 50 insurgents entered Quelimane village in Mocímboa da Praia district and captured several people. Online news service Pinnacle News reported that the insurgents asked them “Who said that the war is over? Who is saying that you can go back now?” Most of the people were released later that night but one is still missing, presumed dead.

Security forces were also accused of violence against civilians last week. On 8 February, a trader was kidnapped in Nangade district headquarters by uniformed officers of the police Rapid Intervention Unit, according to Voice of America. The news outlet reported that four hooded men burst into the shopkeeper's house and bundled him away. Residents complain that this has become an increasingly regular occurrence.

A suspected insurgent was captured in Nicunhete in Ancuabe district, taken to Macarara barracks, and tortured on 10 February.

In Macomia district, clearing operations around Litandacua saw at least 30 men and women liberated from IS captivity on 12 February. According to a source, they are now being held in a barracks in Macomia town, for investigation by the Defense and Security Forces.

Weekly Focus: Strategic Communications for the Insurgency

The past two weeks have seen messaging by insurgents, through meetings, handwritten leaflets, and video clips. The materials in circulation, as in October and November 2022, are consistent with IS communications internationally. The leaflets, meetings, and clips represent a desire to be seen as legitimate, but in no way merciful.

Video footage taken at the site of the killing of 14 members of the Naparama militia on the Meluco-Macomia border on 31 January circulated last week. Photographs of the aftermath appeared in IS’s social media channels and its weekly newsletter, al-Naba. The latter referred to the “newly created militia.”

The two clips were disseminated directly by the insurgents and not through IS media channels. In one they threatened that anyone involved with or considering joining Naparama would meet the same fate as the 14, “for their magic is nothing.” The images presented the two groups in stark contrast. On the one hand, there were well-armed insurgents, masked, armed with machine guns, and dressed in looted military fatigues. On the other were the Naparama, with ritual marks on their chests, red cloths around their heads, and armed with spears and a small number of Soviet-era Simonov rifles.

The Naparama, in their current incarnation, emerged in Balama and Namuno districts in the south of the province last November. In recent weeks they have gained followers as far north as Macomia district. The video, and the atrocity of the killings, seek to stem that.

In Montepuez district, around 9 February, a handwritten note was left in a settlement near Nairoto. The note implored villagers who had fled not to fear the insurgents, and that they were willing to pay for what they had taken for their “basic needs.” There were conditions. Muslims who contacted the mobile number on the leaflet would be paid, but Christians would need to either convert to Islam, or submit to pay “tax.” Similar, though briefer, notes were left at two other locations last week.

More worrying were the visits made by insurgents last week to Maculo village, approximately 10 km north of Mocímboa da Praia, on the coast. According to a witness, on 3 February, they warned villagers against collaboration with security forces, promising a better life if they cooperated with them. On Tuesday 7 February, they visited again, one day after Rwandan troops had visited to reassure them. The same source reported that five boatloads of people then left for Mocímboa da Praia town. This follows a similar incident in Calugo village in late January, some 20 km south of the district headquarters, visited by up to 25 men. That insurgents have such freedom of movement so close to the district capital indicates the delicacy of the town’s security.

Weekly Round-Up

Gemfields evacuate staff

The evacuation of staff from the Gemfields-owned gold mining project will likely be seen as a win by the insurgents. In last week’s al-Naba, IS stressed that recent highway ambushes “aimed at striking the economy of the Mozambican government.” Continued attacks along the R698 road between Mueda and Montepuez work to this end.

This is not the first time operations have been hit. In June, Gemfields suspended transport operations in response to an incident at another mine in Ancuabe district. In October, Gemfields evacuated staff in response to an attack on the Gemrock mine site, which occurred close to their own ruby mine in the east of Montepuez district.

President Nyusi visits Cabo Delgado

President Filipe Nyusi spent a number of days in Cabo Delgado last week, touring with the visiting President of the Swiss Confederation, Alain Berset, and celebrating his 64th birthday with a party at the Avani Pemba Beach Hotel.

Nyusi’s visit took in Montepuez, Balama, and Mueda as well as the provincial capital of Pemba. Berset went with him to Mueda, visiting among other things the Eduardo Mondlane refugee camp, which houses more than 2,000 internally displaced families. Switzerland finances electricity and water projects in the area – with water provision being a constant challenge for Mueda.

Nyusi went on to visit Balama to inaugurate an electrification project at his family’s home village, Impiri, on 10 February. Nyusi was brought up largely in Frelimo schools in Tanzania and elsewhere in Mozambique, but his roots are in Balama; his father was a Catholic church leader in Impiri, as was his uncle. Nyusi has since ensured, through private donations, that the church now has a proper building.

His visit to the interior of the province has symbolic value for the narrative of normalization of life in the province – particularly when he was able to take a visiting foreign dignitary with him. He and Berset were also present at the inauguration of Mueda’s ‘Praça do Metical,’ a public square celebrating the Mozambican currency, sponsored by the Bank of Mozambique which has set them up in cities around the country. The square is another symbol of Mozambique’s indivisibility, and a reminder of the state’s power reaching the farthest corners of the country.

Battle for hearts and minds

As insurgents reached out to communities in Mocímboa da Praia last week, so did the Rwandan forces. Troops distributed school materials to pupils in both Mocímboa da Praia and Palma last week. In Mocímboa da Praia, this follows the re-opening of primary schools last month.

In Palma, MediaFax reports that the TotalEnergies-led Mozambique liquified natural gas project and ExxonMobil have distributed 500 bicycles in Palma district, in collaboration with Mozambikes. This is part of ongoing community spending by the oil companies in both Palma and Mocímboa da Praia.

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