Cabo Ligado Update: 30 June — 13 July 2025

Jul 16

By the numbers

Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (30 June - 13 July 2025)

At least 7 political violence events (2,127 in total since 1 October 2017)
At least 7 reported fatalities from political violence (6,122 since 1 October 2017)
At least 6 reported civilian fatalities (2,531 since 1 October 2017)
At least 5 political violence events involving ISM across Mozambique (1,956 since 1 October 2017)

The Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) navy branch fired on fishers off the coast of Macomia on at least two occasions, killing at least six, bringing civilian killings by FADM at sea to 110 since 2020. Fatalities may rise as bodies continue to be discovered. The killings occurred as fighting between FADM and Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) continued around nearby Quiterajo. To the west, ISM mounted road blocks on the N380, raising considerable sums in ransom. Further south, disorder involving youth in Mecufi district in Cabo Delgado and Angoche in Nampula reflect the underlying instability in northern Mozambique.

Situation Summary

Civilians targeted in Macomia’s waters, as ISM remains in Quiterajo area

On the night of 5 July, a FADM marine patrol opened fire on three fishing boats off Pangane, killing at least three and injuring at least four, according to multiple local sources. Widely circulated video clips show two of the wounded being rushed to Mucojo by vehicle, where they were treated at a Rwandan health facility before being transferred to Macomia town. Sources identified the boat as FADM, with one source saying the vessel operates in seas off Ibo and Quissanga, and up to Mucojo and Quiterajo in Macomia district. A spokesperson for the security forces, Colonel Benjamin Chabualo, told Zitamar News that they were aware of the incident but did “not yet have any official information on this concerning matter.”

According to multiple sources, FADM continued to target civilian boats in subsequent days. Two sources reported that FADM ordered all fishing to stop, and for people to leave Milamba and Pequeué villages to the south of Quiterajo. Around 7 July, a fishing boat leaving Pequeué was targeted, causing an unknown number of fatalities. The crew is believed to have been from Tanzania. In subsequent days, multiple sources reported bodies coming ashore to the north in Mocímboa da Praia district. One claimed that two came ashore in Nabaje, one in Calugo, and two in Ulo village. Another claimed that four had come ashore in Ulo.

According to ACLED data, these are the first actions by FADM at sea this year. They follow FADM’s significant losses in an attack on their Quiterajo base on 27 June, despite counter-insurgency operations that were ongoing around Quiterajo at the time. ISM was able to maintain a presence in the Quiterajo area for at least one week after that attack. Islamic State’s weekly newsletter al-Naba reported on 3 July that ISM killed a survivor of the attack in an area close to Quiterajo town. Two other sources reported continued fighting in the area on 5 and 6 July.

Roadblocks on the N380

Traffic on the N380 highway, particularly between Macomia and Awasse towns, continues to be threatened by ISM activity. The risk to business the extortion at roadblocks presents prompted the Mueda branch of the Confederation of Economic Associations (CTA), in a 14 July letter to Mueda district government, to threaten to shut down all business in Mueda for one week from 21 July. The Mueda CTA claims that in the last three months, there have been up to three extortion incidents per week on the N380 involving ISM.

Most recently, on 11 July, multiple sources reported that ISM blocked the road between Mungue, also known as Criação, in Muidumbe and Antadora in Mocímboa da Praia district. A number of vehicles, including a Mocímboa da Praia district health services vehicle, were stopped and held until ransom was paid. According to a widely shared recorded conversation with one person caught up in the event, ransoms ranged from 50,000 to 150,000 meticais (780 to 2,240 US dollars). There were also unconfirmed reports of attempts to stop traffic on the same stretch of road on 4 and 7 July. Further south on the N380, another roadblock was mounted on 12 July at Xitaxi, close to Miangelewa. At least one truck was looted in the incident. According to another source, one of the ISM fighters was a youth from Mocímboa da Praia’s Nacala neighborhood. He reportedly told those in the vehicles, “You keep saying we're suffering, that's not true, you're lying to yourselves, we're here working normally.”

Continued ISM activity on the road is not surprising, if the testimony of one ISM fighter is accurate. On 3 July, a man was arrested in Macomia on suspicion of scouting the area for a future attack. In a leaked video he claimed that there were five ISM camps south of the Messalo river and close to the N380, but that food was short, seeming to contradict his colleague on the roadblock.

In light of this activity, it is surprising that the National Roads Administration organized a road trip for journalists from Macomia to Mueda on 26 June. The party was detained briefly by security forces at Miangelewa, before being returned to Macomia for further questioning, leading the Media Institute for Southern Africa to write to the minister of defense, saying the journalists had been subjected to “psychological torture.”

Crime sparks disorder in Mecufi, and ‘Naparama’ appear in Nampula

On 11 July youth blocked the R760 at Maueia, less than 20 kilometers south of Pemba town in Mecufi district, according to local sources. Youth in Maueia alleged that police were ransacking homes and stealing goods under cover of operations against a criminal group known as Grupo 15. Violent crime is thought to be on the increase in Pemba, a trend that media has linked to the group. The original Grupo 15 was active in Nampula before the insurgency. It is likely that the term has slipped into general usage to refer to armed criminal gangs, and that criminal activity in Pemba may be attributable to various groups.

Further south in Nampula province, police in Angoche claimed that a group that the police identify as Naparama has been trying to usurp the government in the district’s Aube area. On 11 July, police reported clashing with a group of seven of them on Malipone island, south of Angoche town. Three died in the clash, among them one police officer. Whether the youth involved represent an organized threat to the state as Naparama or are just a group of alienated young people is not yet clear. The actual threat presented is likely slight, given how few were involved. Thus far, no evidence is available of the youths’ involvement in a wider organization or movement, with just the police’s word that they are Naparama. The police’s attempt to associate the youths with Venâncio Mondlane may be an effort to frame criminal activity as political.

Focus: FADM’s naval operations

On 27 June, Macomia District Administrator Tomás Badae was praising FADM for enabling the return of displaced people to the Mucojo area. One week later, FADM was firing on fishing boats at Pangane. Targeting of civilians has been a feature of FADM actions at sea. In around one-third of its maritime actions since 2019 it has targeted civilians, resulting in over 100 reported fatalities, according to ACLED data. These actions have taken place along the 250 km coastline between Pemba and Palma (see map and graph below). 26 events involving ISM, compared to 16 events in all of 2024. Activity peaked in 2022 with 38 events, a level that will likely be surpassed in 2025 (see graph below).

Cabo Delgado’s coastal waters have been consistently used by ISM insurgents. One of their earliest propaganda videos — before this communications function was taken over by the Islamic State — was shot at sea. The importance of combating the group at sea has long been recognized. A pre-deployment assessment by the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in 2021 recommended “two surface patrol ships, and a submarine,” though only one ship was ever deployed by SADC’s Mission in Mozambique.

ACLED data indicate that insurgents have been consistently more active at sea and on offshore islands than FADM. Last week’s killings are the first actions at sea in 2025 involving FADM recorded by ACLED. In contrast, ACLED records ISM involvement in 13 events thus far this year, all off the coast of Macomia and Mocímboa da Praia districts. The group’s activity is at a rate similar to 2024, which saw the greatest level of ISM marine activity by year during the conflict.

The killing of the three fishermen may represent frustration at ISM’s apparent freedom of movement at sea. However, FADM would be mistaken to think that ISM’s activity in coastal waters is due to widespread civilian support. In 11 of the 13 ISM actions at sea so far this year, fishers and fishing communities have been the victims of either looting or abduction.

FADM’s recent actions at sea around Pangane are a response to continued ISM activity in the area, but they are likely to have a detrimental impact on security in the area. Coastal communities who are victims of ISM’s regular theft and extortion are unlikely to collaborate with security forces in these circumstances. This leaves fishing communities in an impossible position, victims of both the insurgents and the military. FADM’s actions, and their order for people to leave the area, also risk undermining the fragile return that the district administrator celebrated last week. The actions may also have national consequences, given the centrality of security to TotalEnergies’ contemplation of lifting force majeure on the liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in Palma to the north.

Roundup

Mozambique and Malawi ink defense cooperation agreement

At a 3 July meeting of the Mozambique-Malawi Permanent Joint Commission on Defense and Security in Maputo, Mozambique and Malawi signed an agreement enabling their armed forces to carry out combined patrols and military exercises. At the meeting, the two governments agreed to step up security cooperation to combat cross-border crime and strengthen security. The two countries had previously pledged to cooperate on combating “terrorism” at the commission’s 2023 meeting.

TotalEnergies boss visits Mozambique ahead of expected project restart

Patrick Pouyanné, chief executive of French energy firm TotalEnergies, met with Mozambican President Daniel Chapo in Maputo on 10 July. His visit to Mozambique came amid increasing signs that TotalEnergies was preparing to lift its force majeure declaration that paused work on its LNG project in Cabo Delgado province following the insurgent attack on Palma in March 2021. The decision could come within a month, Zitamar News reported.

Mozambique ‘restarts payments’ for Rwandan counter-insurgency support

The Mozambican government has restarted payments to support the cost of the Rwandan security forces helping fight the insurgency in Cabo Delgado province, Africa Intelligence said, after having stopped payments of $2 million per month in August 2024. Since mid-June, payments have resumed and some of the arrears have also been paid, but “the situation has yet to be thoroughly resolved,” according to the report, which adds that “it seems unlikely that the Rwandans will be asked to stay in the country much longer” now that President Chapo has taken power. Cabo Ligado understands, however, that Chapo is holding firm against opposition to maintaining the Rwandan military presence in Cabo Delgado, as its departure could be fatal for the gas projects in Palma district. The Rwandan mission, which is partly funded by the European Union, costs over $10 million a month.

Former Mozambican officials questioned over police conduct in post-election protests

Former Mozambican Interior Minister Pascoal Ronda and former Police Commander Bernardino Rafael were questioned last week by the Attorney General's Office in Maputo regarding a complaint from civil society organizations concerning police actions during post-election protests. Rafael has been accused of being responsible for the deaths of 65 citizens and the injury of more than 1,000 people, in a complaint filed by the Center for Democracy and Human Rights (CDD) in November last year.

Social activist Wilker Dias also filed a complaint against Rafael and Ronda, demanding that they be held responsible for the deaths that occurred during the protests. Rafael's nine-hour session was described as an initial hearing, and more individuals are set to be questioned before the Public Prosecutor's Office considers potential charges or coercive measures.

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