Cabo Ligado Update: 19 May — 1 June 2025

Jun 4

Written By Cabo Ligado

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By the numbers

Data highlights in Cabo Delgado province (19 May - 1 June 2025)

At least 4 political violence events (2,084 in total since 1 October 2017)
At least 10 reported fatalities from political violence (6,017 since 1 October 2017)
0 reported civilian fatalities (2,506 since 1 October 2017)
At least 2 political violence events involving ISM across Mozambique (1,918 since 1 October 2017)

Islamic State Mozambique (ISM) was relatively quiet in the past fortnight. State forces launched an operation against the group in the Quiterajo area of Macomia district. While the impact of this operation is not yet clear, insurgents successfully overran a Defense Armed Forces of Mozambique (FADM) position in the Catupa forest, reportedly killing 10 soldiers, seizing weaponry, and sparking alarm in nearby Macomia town. Though the only attack of consequence during this period, it illustrates ISM’s continued ability to operate in one of rural Mozambique’s most militarized areas. Elsewhere, the group undertook minor looting. In Maputo, post-election violence played out with a police Rapid Intervention Unit (UIR) operation to clear former Renamo fighters from the party’s headquarters. The protesters were calling for the removal of party leader Ossufo Momade.

Situation Summary

In Macomia district, security forces launched an operation around the villages of Nharide and Metone on the coast and into the Catupa forest. The operation began on 16 May and lasted at least three days, but no further details have been verified.

The following week, on 27 May, ISM militants attacked a FADM forward operating base named Namabo, 4 kilometers east of the village of Quinto Congresso in the Macomia district of Cabo Delgado province, where 10 soldiers were killed, according to Islamic State (IS) propaganda. FADM has had a position there since 2022. The IS-affiliated news agency Amaq reported that insurgents attacked the position in the evening and burned it after stealing weapons and ammunition. Local sources have not corroborated the precise number of deaths but confirm there were FADM casualties. Panic gripped Macomia town, about 20 km away, and businesses were closed as security forces arrived to reinforce the area. On 28 May, fear that another insurgent attack was imminent spread through a crowd at a food distribution site in Macomia town run by the NGO Acted, prompting police to fire their weapons to disperse the gathering.

To the north in Mocímboa da Praia district, sometime in the week preceding 20 May, insurgents appeared in the village of Makulo. They screened sermons by the late Kenyan extremist preacher Sheikh Aboud Rogo and demanded money, according to a source. Clips of Rogo have been a staple of violent jihadist propaganda across the region since his death in 2012. On 24 May, insurgents looted the village of Marere, mainly stealing food, a local source reported. Some days prior to the incident, the insurgents visited Marere, where they showed residents anti-Rwandan propaganda videos and encouraged them to leave, the source said.

In Muidumbe district, insurgents were seen moving in the fields near the village of Litapata on the southern boundary of Muidumbe for several days prior to 25 May, causing panic to spread through the area, Lusa reported. On 27 May, a food truck was ambushed and looted by armed men, presumed to be insurgents, near the village of Mungwe on the N380 highway, one source reported. Another source could not confirm the incident but said that traffic was disrupted on that section of the N380 that day.

An insurgent presence persists in Nangade district. On 1 June, insurgents captured a woman from the village of Namuembe and questioned her about the location of the village leader’s house, sources told Cabo Ligado. She was released after a short time.

Meanwhile, the continuing ripples of last October’s contested election continue to be felt by Renamo. On 28 May, the police UIR stormed the party’s headquarters in Maputo to remove members including former fighters who had occupied the building since 15 May. UIR officers used tear gas and rubber bullets in the operation, and injured two people. In recent months, party offices across the country have been occupied by members seeking Momade’s resignation following the party’s dismal showing in the October elections. The deployment of UIR against Momade’s opponents is a new nadir for the party. Venâncio Mondlane described the operation as a “humiliation” for a party that he said had contributed greatly to the freedoms people have under the 1990 constitution.

Focus: FADM reeling from successive attacks

The attack on FADM’s Namabo base is another setback for the force, which has lost at least 40 soldiers in the conflict since the beginning of the year. Over half of these reported deaths have occurred during two attacks close to the N380. The most recent was the 27 May attack on FADM’s position at Namabo. That attack came nearly three weeks after an assault on a new position at Primeiro de Maio, near Miangelewa town, around 8 May. At least 21 soldiers were killed in the two attacks, in which ISM also seized a significant amount of weaponry. The two attacks raise concerns about ISM’s continued ability to operate around the heavily militarized stretch of the N380 north of Macomia town, doubts over cooperation between FADM and Rwandan forces, and questions about FADM’s morale.

There were no reports of any response by either force to the attacks at Namabo and Primeiro de Maio, reflecting a pattern of limited response to insurgent activity in the area by both national and Rwandan forces that has been apparent since December. This is despite Namabo and Primeiro de Maio being among a number of positions held by FADM and Rwandan forces in the area.

Continued ISM activity in Macomia district is both a political and a security challenge to state forces. The apparent lack of coordination with Rwandan forces creates openings for ISM, while FADM’s fatality numbers are likely affecting morale. Rwandan forces on the other hand may find it hard to maintain community relations in Macomia as successfully as they have in Palma and Mocímboa da Praia. Just three days after the Namabo killings, Brigadier General Justus Majyambere of the Rwanda Defence Force handed over a newly constructed market in Macomia town to District Administrator Tomás Badae. The pair were guarded by at least 11 heavily armed RDF soldiers and Rwanda National Police officers as they cut the ribbon, which was in the colors of the Rwandan flag. Macomia town is home to over 45,000 displaced people, according to the latest assessment by the International Organization for Migration, many of whom come from areas where insurgents are now active. If they associate their continued displacement with Rwandan and FADM failure to control ISM in their home areas, the type of anti-Rwanda propaganda shown to villagers in Marare may have some impact.

Roundup

UN warns of growing humanitarian crisis amid conflict, climate change, unrest, and child hunger

The United Nations warns of a worsening humanitarian crisis in Mozambique, with over 25,000 newly displaced by renewed insurgent violence, adding to the 1.3 million people already uprooted. A “triple crisis” of conflict, climate shocks, and political unrest is straining aid efforts, with only 32% of the UN Refugee Agency’s needed funding secured. Compounding this, 61% of children under five are behind on key physical development indicators, according to data presented by Mozambique’s health ministry on 29 May.

Chapo wants the newly trained special forces to end terrorism

On 23 May, 525 Mozambican Special Forces soldiers from FADM graduated from an advanced infantry training course led by the Rwanda Defence Force. Speaking at the graduation ceremony in Nacala, Nampula Province, President Daniel Chapo said that the newly trained Special Forces would face a number of challenges, including eradicating “terrorism,” combating kidnappings, dismantling Naparama vigilante groups, and addressing transnational crimes that undermine peace and stability in the country.

TotalEnergies shifts to marine transport

The weekly Savana newspaper reported on 30 May that TotalEnergies had told contractors that in future no supplies for the liquefied natural gas project will be brought in by road from Mocímboa da Praia. Cabo Ligado understands that Rwandan forces have escorted freight traffic from Mocímboa da Praia port to the LNG project site at Afungi. Savana also reports that security at the site itself has been tightened.

Reported payment dispute between Rwanda and Mozambique

Africa Intelligence claims that since August 2024, Mozambique has failed to make monthly payments to Rwanda of $2 million to $4 million USD for Rwanda’s military operation in northern Mozambique. According to the report, this failure has created concerns among firms involved in the LNG project. The report presents no details of any agreement between the two governments.

Cabo Ligado